Baccarat is one of the most popular casino games and is incredibly simple to play. In baccarat, participants place bets on either the player hand, banker hand, or tie. The dealer deals each hand two cards face up and the hand with a total closest to nine wins. Players can bet on both the player and banker hands, but simultaneous betting on the player and banker is prohibited. In addition, a commission is paid to the casino if bets are placed on the banker hand (as opposed to the player).
The present study examined the behavior of baccarat customers using real-world data from a live game at a major casino in Las Vegas. The study used a large sample of customers who met criteria for active gambling, including placing more than 70 bets in a day and visiting the baccarat table at least three times over a period of several weeks. This approach enabled us to evaluate whether these participants adhered to a trend-following strategy and exhibited evidence of positive recency.
Our results consistently demonstrated that the percentage of bets on the same outcome increased with the length of a streak of consecutive corresponding outcomes. Furthermore, we found that the amount of money wagered when a customer followed a trend also increased with streak length. These findings support the hypothesis that baccarat gamblers believe in positive recency and follow the erroneous belief that they will win if they bet on the same outcome as the previous result.
In order to understand the causes of this phenomenon, we considered the possibility that the specific features of baccarat may contribute to the effect. For example, unlike other games such as roulette, the scoreboard displays past outcomes in a way that emphasizes their continuity and encourages players to expect that they will continue. In addition, the fact that a baccarat hand is a fixed event that takes place in the past may also influence bet behavior.
Finally, social and environmental factors unique to baccarat may also contribute to the observed effects. In particular, the presence of other bettors at a baccarat table may influence gamblers’ bet decisions. For example, the Martingale strategy, a common method for playing baccarat, involves doubling your bet after every loss, with the expectation that a single win will recoup all previous losses and provide a profit equal to your original bet.
Regardless of the exact mechanisms at work, our results suggest that positive recency is prevalent among baccarat gamblers and can have significant negative consequences. Moreover, these findings suggest that the existence of this phenomenon should be considered when evaluating problem gambling and other maladaptive behaviors in casinos. We hope that the present research will help to further the understanding of problem gambling and will lead to improved interventions in this field.
